Microsoft’s Pivot – A Plan to Dominate “Devices and Services”

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We are currently witnessing a major pivot in Microsoft’s core business model. It is starting to become clear that – as Steve Ballmer recently announced – Microsoft is deadly serious about becoming a global leader in consumer “Devices and Services.” Successful execution of this strategy will require the company to control everything from manufacturing, distribution logistics through to retail.

The company appears to be focused on executing a ‘Leader’ strategy in the devices business which would give them even greater control than Apple famously does over the end user experience. In addition the company is likely to repurpose its online service investments to add value to this new device-led strategy.  A-la Apple, consumers will have no choice but to use Microsoft own services when using a Microsoft mobile device and competition authorities will be powerless to prevent it.

If correct, this pivot will has profound implications for the structure of the company, shareholder value and for the entire mobile technology industry.Continue reading →

Why Microsoft Shareholders Should be Very Concerned

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This weeks Partner’s conference has once again exposed Microsoft’s complete lack of any credible consumer strategy. On the one hand Ballmer claims he’s going to leave no “stone unturned” competing with Apple. Yet on the same day he also states that Microsoft’s own Windows 8 hardware “Surface is just a design point.” Note to Steve: Those are two mutually incompatible objectives.

If Ballmer really is serious about competing with Apple then Microsoft will need to control its own hardware destiny – in pcs, tablets and smartphones – and be completely committed to that strategy. Unfortunately that will also require a willingness to throw the OEM partner community under the bus. Protecting OEMs while aggressively competing with Apple are incompatible strategies. A textbook case of the Innovators dilemma.

Shareholders are likely to pay a very high price if Ballmer continues to believe the fantasy that he can accomplish both these competing objectives and still be successful in the consumer business.

Deploycon 2012 Slides

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Link to the PDF of the slides I used for my recent “Paas: Fit for the Enterprise” presentation at DeployCon 2012 in New York.

The Network Carrier Dilemma

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This article in Forbes magazine about network equipment providers enabling network carriers to expose service APIs (Application Programing Interfaces) started an interesting debate with Alcatel-Lucent’s Laura Merling (@magicmerl), Mike Maney (@the_spinmd) and others on Twitter.

The  crux of the debate is whether exposing developer APIs at the network layer is a good or a bad thing. This is the latest round in the ‘dumb pipes vs. smart network’ debate which lies at the heart of an economic dilemma facing the network carrier business model.Continue reading →

The Jobs Are Not Coming Back

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The NY Times published an interesting article today the impact of robotics on manufacturing jobs using Amazon’s purchase of robot maker Kiva Systems as an exemplar. The core question raised in the article is whether the adoption of automation technologies will create more unemployment or whether – as has been seen in the past – displaced workers will re-train and become employed in other productive areas of the economy. Continue reading →

Mahler’s Ninth

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Waiting for the start of Mahler’s Ninth. Performed by the New York Philharmonic, Avery Fisher Hall at the Lincoln Center, New York.

Intel’s ARMageddon II

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Back in January of this year I published an article about the threat the ARM processor architecture would pose to Intel in the high margin – highly profitable – market for server processors. Bloomberg published a story yesterday indicating that HP is preparing to enter the ARM based server business. I don’t own Intel stock but if I did I’d be selling. ARMageddon is just over the horizon.

Policy Challenges for A Globally Integrated Innovation, Production and Market Platform

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“Cloud computing” is much more than simply a new set of technologies and business models.  It is rapidly emerging as the platform that will underpin the next generation of digital products and services. Cloud Computing is transforming how consumers, companies, and governments store information, how they process and exchange that information, and how they utilize computing power.  Consequently, it opens a new set of policy discussions while at the same time underlining the importance of old debates.

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The World Needs Eyes And Ears on Syria

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The growing slaughter of innocent civilians by the Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad – and his brother Maher Assad – is posing quite a challenge for the international community which risks a re-run of the impotence demonstrated during the Balkan crisis. The situation in Syria is different however and opens doors to more creative approaches at intervention. Its time to deploy the high-tech tools of information warfare.

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